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Wishful Thinking is Risky Thinking

Jarrod BurghEmerson Melo
Feb 2024
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摘要原文
We develop a model of wishful thinking that incorporates the costs and benefits of biased beliefs. We establish the connection between distorted beliefs and risk, revealing how wishful thinking can be understood in terms of risk measures. Our model accommodates extreme beliefs, allowing wishful-thinking decision-makers to assign zero probability to undesirable states and positive probability to otherwise impossible states.
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