The circuit class $\mathsf{QAC}^0$ was introduced by Moore (1999) as a model for constant depth quantum circuits where the gate set includes many-qubit Toffoli gates. Proving lower bounds against such circuits is a longstanding challenge in quantum circuit complexity; in particular, showing that polynomial-size $\mathsf{QAC}^0$ cannot compute the parity function has remained an open question for over 20 years. In this work, we identify a notion of the \emph{Pauli spectrum} of $\mathsf{QAC}^0$ circuits, which can be viewed as the quantum analogue of the Fourier spectrum of classical $\mathsf{AC}^0$ circuits. We conjecture that the Pauli spectrum of $\mathsf{QAC}^0$ circuits satisfies \emph{low-degree concentration}, in analogy to the famous Linial, Nisan, Mansour theorem on the low-degree Fourier concentration of $\mathsf{AC}^0$ circuits. If true, this conjecture immediately implies that polynomial-size $\mathsf{QAC}^0$ circuits cannot compute parity. We prove this conjecture for the class of depth-$d$, polynomial-size $\mathsf{QAC}^0$ circuits with at most $n^{O(1/d)}$ auxiliary qubits. We obtain new circuit lower bounds and learning results as applications: this class of circuits cannot correctly compute -- the $n$-bit parity function on more than $(\frac{1}{2} + 2^{-\Omega(n^{1/d})})$-fraction of inputs, and -- the $n$-bit majority function on more than $(1 - 1/\mathrm{poly}(n))$-fraction of inputs. \end{itemize} Additionally we show that this class of $\mathsf{QAC}^0$ circuits with limited auxiliary qubits can be learned with quasipolynomial sample complexity, giving the first learning result for $\mathsf{QAC}^0$ circuits. More broadly, our results add evidence that ``Pauli-analytic'' techniques can be a powerful tool in studying quantum circuits.