[PDF] Simplifying and Improving: Revisiting Bulgaria's Revenue Forecasting Models-论文阅读讨论-ReadPaper

摘要

In the thirty years since the end of real socialism, Bulgaria's went fromhaving a rather radically 'different' tax system to adopting flat-rate taxationwith marginal tax rates that fell from figures as high as 40% to 10% for boththe corporate-income tax and the personal-income tax. Crucially, theeconometric forecasting models in use at the Bulgarian Ministry of Financehinted at an increase in tax revenue compatible with the so-called 'Laffercurve'. Similarly, many economists held the view that revenues would haveincreased. However, reality fell short of those expectations based onforecasting models and rooted in mainstream economic theory. Thus, this paperasks whether there are betterperforming forecasting models for personal-andcorporate-income tax-revenues in Bulgaria that are readily implementable andoverperform the ones currently in use. After articulating a constructivecritique of the current forecasting models, the paper offers readilyimplementable, transparent alternatives and proves their superiority.

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