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Physics-based model of solar wind stream interaction regions: Interfacing between Multi-VP and 1D MHD for operational forecasting at L1

R. KieokaewR. F. PintoE. Samara ...+11 I. Daglis
Mar 2023
Our current capability of space weather prediction in the Earth's radiationbelts is limited to only an hour in advance using the real-time solar windmonitoring at the Lagrangian L1 point. To mitigate the impacts of space weatheron telecommunication satellites, several frameworks were proposed to advancethe lead time of the prediction. We develop a prototype pipeline called"Helio1D" to forecast ambient solar wind conditions (speed, density,temperature, tangential magnetic field) at L1 with a lead time of 4 days. Thispipeline predicts Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and high-speed streamsthat can increase high-energy fluxes in the radiation belts. The Helio1Dpipeline connects the Multi-VP model, which provides real-time solar windemergence at 0.14 AU, and a 1D MHD model of solar wind propagation. Webenchmark the Helio1D pipeline for solar wind speed against observations forthe intervals in 2004 - 2013 and 2017 - 2018. We developed a framework based onthe Fast Dynamic Time Warping technique that allows us to continuously comparetime-series outputs containing CIRs to observations to measure the pipeline'sperformance. In particular, we use this framework to calibrate and improve thepipeline's performance for operational forecasting. To provide timing andmagnitude uncertainties, we model several solar wind conditions in parallel,for a total of 21 profiles corresponding to the various virtual targetsincluding the Earth. This pipeline can be used to feed real-time, daily solarwind forecasting that aims to predict the dynamics of the inner magnetosphereand the radiation belts.