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Violence in Guatemala pushes adults and children to seek work in Mexico

Roxana Guti\'errez-Romero
Dec 2022
摘要
This article estimates the impact of violence on emigration crossings fromGuatemala to Mexico as final destination during 2009-2017. To identify causaleffects, we use as instruments the variation in deforestation in Guatemala, andthe seizing of cocaine in Colombia. We argue that criminal organizationsdeforest land in Guatemala, fueling violence and leading to emigration,particularly during exogenous supply shocks to cocaine. A one-point increase inthe homicide rate differential between Guatemalan municipalities and Mexico,leads to 211 additional emigration crossings made by male adults. This rise inviolence, also leads to 20 extra emigration crossings made by children.
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